Michael Barone has come out with his prediction for the presidential election. Not only does he believe that Mitt Romney will win, but he thinks he will win decisively. Going through the battleground states, Barone gives Romney Virginia, Florida and North Carolina, which everyone pretty much agrees Romney will win. He also thinks Romney will win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire and Colorado. Here’s why:
Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney. …
Colorado (9). Unlike 2008, registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats, and more Republicans than Democrats have voted early. The Republican trend in 2010 was squandered by weak candidates for governor and senator. Not this time. Romney.
Iowa (6). The unexpected Romney endorsements by the Des Moines Register and three other newspapers gave voice to buyer’s remorse in a state Obama carried by 10 points. Democrats’ traditional margin in early voting has declined. Romney. …
New Hampshire (4). Polls are very tight here. I think superior Republican intensity will prevail. Romney.
Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney. …
Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don’t see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney. (Read More)
Barone’s analysis is pretty close to the predictions I made the other day when I came up with this electoral map.
Barone thinks Michigan will go for Obama, so he’s got the split at 315 for Romney and 223 for Obama, which would still be a pretty decisive win.
Most of the polls we’ve been seeing lately just don’t make much sense. They show Obama leading, even though Romney is winning among independents. Romney is doing much better with early voters than John McCain did in 2008, and Republicans have the enthusiasm factor on their side.
Romney is in Ohio – or as Stacy calls it, the epicenter of the political universe – for a big campaign rally featuring many prominent Republicans and some entertainment from Kid Rock. He was also in Wisconsin today, and will be making appearances in New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia between now and election day.
Oh, and if you think there’s no enthusiasm for Mitt in Ohio, look at the size of this crowd!
Twitchy has more photos of the event, and one person said that 35,000 people showed up. If that doesn’t give you hope, I don’t know what will.