Rasmussen: Romney Takes Lead in Colorado, Moves To Tie In Iowa


Mitt Romney’s momentum is continuing. Today Gallup has Romney leading President Obama nationally by 6 points.  Rasmussen is showing Romney with a 4 point lead in Colorado and a dead heat in Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters finds Romney with 50% support to Obama’s 46%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Still, Colorado remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. But Colorado is the fourth swing state that has moved in Romney’s direction in the past week. FloridaMissouri and North Carolina have now shifted from Toss-Up to Leans Romney.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now dead even in the battleground state of Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds Obama and Romney each earning 48% support.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are still undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

So, what’s going on here? Are these numbers just blips that don’t mean anything?

Have you heard of the preference cascade?

There is a term for what has apparently happened, a phrase coined 15 years ago by economist Timur Kuran and recently popularized by Professor Glenn Reynolds: “Preference cascade.” We do not yet know whether this term accurately reflects the sudden shift of opinion against Obama and in favor of Romney; polls can zigzag erratically back and forth, whereas a genuine “preference cascade” is one-sided and irreversible. Democrats are abuzz with talk of an “October surprise,” hoping that Obama can miraculously recover from his three-week slide, and unexpected events could still turn the polls around.

However, Republicans are increasingly confident and Democrats are increasingly discouraged, and not just because of the polls. Veteran political analyst Michael Barone observes that the Obama campaign’s Electoral College “firewall” appears to be collapsing. While the Democrats seem to have given up on North Carolina and perhaps even Florida, the Republicans are now expanding their own ambitions to include Pennsylvania. And over the weekend, it was reported that the RNC has an 18-to-1 campaign cash advantage over the DNC.

If Romney were indeed riding the momentum produced by a decisive “preference cascade,” such signs are exactly what we might expect to see. (Read More)

Anything can happen in the next two weeks, but things do seem to be moving in Romney’s direction.

The Other McCain has more poll analysis, and had a little fun at the expense of Nate Silver. Heh.