11:10 pm: Of the counties fully reported, here were the spreads:
Jane Corwin won Livingston County by a spread of 47-42.
Jane Corwin won Monroe County by a spread of 45 -44.
Jane Corwin won Orleans 47-40.
Jane Corwin won Wyoming 51-36
Kathy Hochul won Niagara 47-39
10:41 pm: News sites are still slow to update returns. While the media will spin this race as a referendum on Paul Ryan’s budget plan, we all know that it was Hochul’s genius to double the population of Buffalo with high speed rail that really put her over.
10:21 pm: Websites stopped updating regularly, so we are waiting for the final vote count. The big question will be, was Davis a factor? Current tally says no.
– Erie County: Approximately 2,200 out. No firm number on the number returned. That will be tallied tomorrow.
– Monroe County: 924 out, 422 back.
– Orleans County: 213 out, 132 back.
– Niagara County: 1,101 out, 733 back.
– Livingston County: 521 out, 375 back.
– Wyoming County: 250 out, 234 back.
– Genesee County: 633 out, 415 back.
Note that Hochul strongholds are at least half the ballots. Unless the end count is very narrow…we will not have the race drawn out.
10:10 pm: Concession from Corwin?
10:08 pm: AP calls it for Hochul!
10:06 pm: 66% of precincts are reported and Hochul has about a 4,500 vote lead…nearly all from Erie County. Many of the other counties have yet to be counted.
10:03 pm: Half of Wyoming is now counted, Corwin is winning by a spread of 14 points.
10:01 pm: Still no reporting from Genesee and Orleans counties. If turnout was in fact high in these counties, Jane Corwin emerge the winner.
Kathy Hochul D 38,135 48.53%
Jane Corwin R 33,144 42.18%
Jack Davis 6,458 8.22%
Ian Murphy 839 1.07%
9:56 pm: Livingston County is fully counted. Corwin wins by a margin of 5%. Not a poor showing.
9:54 pm: With 50% of the precincts reporting Davis isn’t going to be pulling above an 8%. This will likely be a close race.
Kathy Hochul D 34,162 47.81%
Jane Corwin R 30,566 42.77%
Jack Davis 5,941 8.31%
Ian Murphy 791 1.11%
9:48 pm: 1/4 of Wyoming County now counted, 9 point spread in favor of Corwin. Genesee and Orleans have yet to report. If turnout was good in those counties, Jane Corwin may walk away. Aside from Erie, Hochul is not leading in any of the other counties.
9:45 pm: Hochul is coming on strong in Erie County. 1/2 the districts reported in Erie and Hochul has a 17 point spread on Corwin; the Siena Poll had a 12 point spread. GOW counties have only yet to trickle in with reporting, but it is definitely a good showing for Hochul.
Kathy Hochul D 29,175 47.56%
Jane Corwin R 26,395 43.03%
Jack Davis 5,116 8.34%
Ian Murphy 661 1.08%
9:40 pm: 2/3 of Livingston County is counted, it’s swinging 4% to Corwin. Not an overly powerful number, but better than the Siena Polling results. In case you just joined, I’m using last weekend’s Siena County by County polling as a base line. If Corwin outperforms the polling, she should win.
9:36 pm: Jack Davis is taking double digits in home Niagara County. 1/3 of Monroe County is counted and so far Hochul/Corwin are split (good for Corwin). 1/4 of Erie County is counted, Hochul is out performing her Siena Polling in Erie.
9:33 pm: Jack Davis thus far has stayed in the single digits. However, I suspect that that 8% will not be low enough for Jane Corwin. The GOW counties, which will swing Corwin, are still not reporting…
Kathy Hochul D 15,191 48.14%
Jane Corwin R 13,337 42.26%
Jack Davis 2,724 8.63%
Ian Murphy 307 0.97%
9:28 pm: Here’s an update on standings…of the counties Corwin is strongest, only Livingston County is reporting at the moment. So far Davis is doing well in Niagara and Erie, but mid-single digits outside.
Kathy Hochul D 10,401 48.06%
Jane Corwin R 9,055 41.84%
Jack Davis 1,960 9.06%
Ian Murphy 225 1.04%
9:25 pm: For an election all about mediscare, I seem to hear a lot of pundits spending all their time on Davis’ performance. It’s like there is some other, non-referendum reason the race is tilting Hochul?
Via Buffalo News:
A political analyst told me yesterday that if Davis gets 12-15%, it’s curtains for Corwin…
9:19 pm: Initial numbers are pouring in. So far, mostly from Hochul dominated areas, but at first blush, it looks like both candidates performed very well in the areas they needed to win.
County Precincts Kathy Hochul
(Dem) Jane Corwin
(GOP) I. Murphy
(Grn) J. Davis
Total 2/627 1,017
Erie 0/183 0
Genesee 0/53 0
Livingston 1/61 31
Monroe 0/158 0
Niagara 1/100 986
9:17 pm: Stacy McCain also live blogging from his digs. He reports “Still tied at zero”
9:12 pm: Buffalo News continues to report strong turnout in Corwin strongholds of the GLOW counties:
The bulk of the voters are in Erie and Monroe but it appears voters in the so-called GLOW (Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming counties) area of the district are turning out in greater numbers.
9:10 pm: Heated NY elections have a history of high turnout. NY-20 in 2009 set the record for largest turnout in a special election
9:04 pm: Corwin campaign reports strong turnout for their key counties.
The Corwin campaign is reporting higher than expected turnout in rural counties such as Genesee, Livingston, Orleans and Wyoming. They report turnout there is 35 to 40 percent, which bodes well for Corwin. They report turnout in Erie, Niagara and Monroe is much lower, around 20-25 percent.
8:51 pm: Here is what you want to know about NY-26 as the returns come in:
The largest population centers are around Erie County. Hochul needs to win big there. The area’s outside are mostly, strongly, Republican territory. The last Siena Poll had Katy Hochul up by 4 points and polled on a breakdown of counties. Thus, this would be a good example of what the spreads would be for a Hochul victory:
Erie County: 50% Kathy Hochul, 38% Jane Corwin, 9% Jack Davis
Monroe/Livingston Counties: 36% Kathy Hochul, 40% Jane Corwin, 12% Jack Davis
Niagara/Orleans/Genesee/Wyoming Counties: 37% Kathy Hochul, 36% Jane Corwin, 17% Jack Davis
Update 3 by Karen: It’s still about 15 minutes until polls close, but the election results can be found here as they are reported.
Update 2 by Karen: According to Hotline on Call, turnout has been fairly heavy in the Democrat stronghold of Erie County. We still have nearly 45 minutes until polls close. Also, the race is expected to be close, so keep an eye on those absentee ballots. According to Liz Benjamin there are about 6,400 outstanding paper ballots. So unless there’s a pretty clear winner tonight, it could be a while before we know the outcome of this race.
Update by Karen: Polls are open until 9 PM ET. The Davis campaign may have broken election laws, and that kooky Green Party candidate (the same guy who called WI Governor Scott Walker pretending to be one of the Koch brothers) infiltrated Corwin’s phone bank. Ugh!
7:19 am: NY-26 is my home district and I’ll be checking in and out throughout today to give election updates. Tonight, I’ll be live blogging the returns. Also, I’m toying with showing up at Jane Corwin headquarters for some shoe leather reporting. I haven’t made up my mind (it’s early in the work week), so leave me a note in the comments if you’d be interested in having someone reporting live from the trenches.
As I’ve pointed out, the race is really about Jack Davis’ spoiler potential. The lower he performs today, the better the chances of a Corwin victory. So the question is: Are 13 percent of voters really going to vote for crazy Jack Davis?
Also of note, many of the undecideds in the weeks rolling up to the election are Republicans. So, the outcome of the election is up to Republicans to win or lose. They can fall for the fake Tea Party candidate in Jack Davis or the real conservative Jane Corwin.
Here are links to my coverage so far: